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Wednesday, May 18 • 9:00am - 12:30pm
Modeling Monte Carlo - A Simple Real-world Case Study LIMITED

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Limited Capacity seats available

After learning and understanding the benefits of using a probabilistic approach to forecast when a feature (or a set of them) might be completed, Monte Carlo simulations were one of the first things I worked on adding to my analysis tool belt. Conceptually, I find it to be a simple technique, and relative low cost effort in comparison to the potentially powerful insights it provides beyond single point or non-probabilistic based range estimates.

However, as with many analysis methods and in particular one where a model is used, there are assumptions made quite often implicitly, if not explicitly, or possibly even unknowingly. In this workshop we’ll see examples of just how important it is to be aware of these assumptions in your context.

I’ll start with a quick overview of a simple Monte Carlo simulation I developed using “real-world” data and identify some of my initial assumptions. Next, we’ll see how the forecast compared to actual results as part of my efforts to validate the model design and assumptions. And we’ll conclude with how this validation effort resulted in new learning and understanding of how important those assumptions can be in the value and benefit you obtain from a forecast of this nature.

While no formal previous statistics knowledge is required, as a “heads-up” in addition to Monte Carlo simulations our discussion will assume some basic familiarity with these concepts: random numbers, scatter plots, percentiles, and histograms.

Speakers
avatar for Frank Vega

Frank Vega

Frank brings 25+ years of IT/IS experience, in roles including director, software architect, technical team lead, developer, database modeler, and numerical/data analyst. In 2002 he began assisting teams with applying lean-agile processes and practices (Scrum, XP). He started using the kanban method with his teams in 2007. As a Kanban Coaching Professional (KCP), Frank leverages “real world” experiences to coach others to optimize and... Read More →


Wednesday May 18, 2016 9:00am - 12:30pm
Boardroom East Catamaran 2nd Floor

Attendees (9)